Complete Story
02/24/2021
COVID-19 Print Business Indicators Research
Source: Andy Paparozzi, February, 2021
This is the fourth in a series of reports PRINTING United Alliance and NAPCO Research have created to examine the effects of the COVID-19 crisis on the printing industry, how printers are responding to the crisis, and how they can create a path forward.
The research is based on a bimonthly survey that includes commercial printers, graphic and sign producers, apparel decorators, functional printers, and package printers/converters.
The survey tracks percent change in printing industry sales in two ways. The first is over year-earlier levels to gauge the depth and breadth of the crisis. The second is over the last 30 days to track movement since the crisis started in mid-March 2020: Has a bottom been reached? Is there movement off bottom? Is the movement sustainable?
An index of current business indicators tracks which way sales, production, employment, prices, and pre-tax profitability are trending. An index of leading business indicators signals what’s ahead by tracking work-on-hand, quote activity, production payroll hours, and confidence.
Participant comments on current and expected business conditions put the numbers in context. An analysis of the American economy’s likely course and what it would mean for the printing industry supplements the survey results.
More than 200 printing companies from across the United States and Canada participated in the fourth PRINTING United Alliance/NAPCO Research COVID-19 Print Business Indicators Survey. Topics included percent change in sales over the last 30 days compared with the previous 30 days; current trends in sales, production, quote activity, and confidence; how sales for the first three quarters of 2020 compared with year-earlier levels; and answers to questions such as: Are any of your sales directly COVID-related? If so, about what percent of your sales do they make up and how long do you expect them to last? Are you planning capital investments in 2021? How will the elections affect your plans in the upcoming year? And what concerns you the most heading into 2021? Comparisons with the results from our first three surveys show the printing industry has taken another step toward recovery as we enter a new year.
Key Findings
• Compared to the same period in 2019, sales fell 16.0%, on average, during the first three quarters of 2020 for companies surveyed. Sales fell for 78.5% of all respondents, for 80.1% of the commercial printers, 76.9% of the graphic and sign producers, and 78.6% of the apparel decorators.
• Measured 30 days over the previous 30 day, sales were flat, on average, during the November/December period for companies surveyed. This is a vast improvement over declines of 53.7%, 30.2%, and 4.7% for the March/April,May/June, and July/August survey periods, respectively.
• The index of current indicators reached 50.0 (52.2) for the first time since this research began, as more companies report sales, production, and employment are trending higher.
• The index of leading indicators dipped slightly but remains above 50.0 at 53.1 as quote activity and printer
confidence slip.
• Companies surveyed identified more than one dozen concerns heading into 2021. Where the COVID crisis is
headed was cited most frequently (82.4%), followed by maintaining sales (72.7%) and maintaining profitability
(65.3%) as the pandemic drags on.
• Uncertainty is limiting investment plans as only 39.0% currently plan on investing in capital equipment in 2021.
• 74.3% of firms are still reporting that they have pivoted to creating COVID-related products during the pandemic. This is down from the last report as is the average percent of sales accounted for by these products.
• 88.1% of respondents believe that these COVID-related sales will cease by the end of 2021 or earlier while others think that they will last into 2022 or beyond.
• Slightly more than 25.0% of companies surveyed say the outcome of federal elections will be “very important” to developing their 2021 plans, 34.9% say they will be “somewhat important,” 28.4% say they will “not be important,” and 11.5% are unsure of their importance.
